The Impact of El Niño on India’s Monsoon Seasons

Analysis of El Niño Correlation with Monsoon Deficiency

Research indicates that around 70% of El Niño years since 1980 have been associated with poor summer monsoons in India. This correlation highlights one of the strongest links between Pacific weather patterns and the country’s rainfall from June to September.

Recent Forecasts Predict Stronger El Niño Conditions

Significant emphasis has been placed on the recent forecasts from US and European weather agencies, which suggest that an El Niño event is likely to develop within the next two to three months. This upcoming El Niño is expected to be stronger than what previous predictions indicated. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon rainfall for the season is projected to be below normal.

Historical Data on El Niño Years and Monsoon Performance

An analysis by the examined all El Niño years since 1980 as defined by the US agency NCEP. Out of the 13 El Niño years, 7 recorded deficient or severely deficient monsoons (below 90% of the long-period average), 2 were classified as below normal, 3 were normal, and 1 had excess rainfall. Notably, even in 2018—a year deemed below normal—rainfall levels were close to deficient.

In contrast, IMD’s metrics identified eight El Niño years, with monsoons being deficient in six cases, including a severely deficient year in 2002 (rainfall below 80% of LPA).

Effects of Other Climate Phenomena on Monsoons

It’s important to note that there are variations in monsoon performance, even in El Niño years. For instance, in 2014, rising sea temperatures in the Pacific impacted the monsoon, although an El Niño did not ultimately develop. During an El Niño event, the eastern and central tropical Pacific experience unusual warming of surface waters, which leads to altered global wind patterns and weather anomalies.

Exceptions to the Trend: Normal Monsoons in El Niño Years

There are notable exceptions where monsoons remained normal despite the presence of El Niño. A prominent example is 1997, when one of the strongest El Niños occurred, yet the June-September rainfall in India remained normal. This anomaly is attributed to favorable conditions in the Indian Ocean, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole, which countered the effects of the El Niño.

Global Consensus on Upcoming El Niño Developments

There is a growing consensus among global meteorological agencies regarding the potential formation of El Niño this summer. The European agency ECMWF predicts a high probability of these conditions developing between May and June and intensifying into a very strong event—often referred to as a "super El Niño"—by the year’s end.

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